NBA betting: Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 5 prediction, odds, expert pick for Wed. 5/15

Mavericks vs. Thunder Odds

Wednesday, May 15, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have been navigating Luka Doncic's knee/ankle injury this entire series and even though he is on the report as probable, it will be truly stunning if he does not play in Game 5.

Even a hobbled Doncic is averaging 22 points, 10.8 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 2.3 steals in the first four games of this series, but his percentages are abysmal. Doncic has a .390/.310/.679 shooting splits and 44.8% eFG%, which is a far cry from his 57.3% mark during the regular season. His decrease in efficiency is impacting the Mavericks' overall upside.

One of the swings recently in the series is that Dallas has learned on Kyrie Irving as a facilitator. He has recorded nine, seven and 11 assists in his last three games on 13, 16 and 20 potential assists. Irving's 5.5 assists prop for Game 5 seems like a strong play.

The issue is that Irving has been great as a playmaker but seemingly absent as a scoring threat. He scored just nine points in Game 4 on 4-of-11 shooting after registering 20, nine and 22 points to start the series. While the passing and shot creation for others is invaluable, it's tough for Irving to put up single-digit-scoring nights given Doncic's struggles and see a path for the Mavs to win this series.

Irving still is +700 to lead the series in assists at DraftKings, and that number is wrong. He has 30 assists, which is just one behind Luka and two more than Shai Gilgeous-Alexnader. I'd throw half a unit on that 7-1 wager.

It'd be impossible to talk about the Mavericks at this point without mentioning P.J. Washington, who's red hot in the series. He's averaging 21.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and 4.75 made 3-pointers on 9.25 attempts. Washington is shooting 51.4% from 3-point range in the series, which is far better than his career 35.4 mark.

Washington has been able to get a lot of these looks with Oklahoma City struggling to rotate defensively since it wants to stay home on Doncic and Irving. Washington's 3-pointers made prop is still set at 2.5, a number he's blown by in the last three games with five, five and seven made 3s. It's worth a look for Game 5.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have a clean injury report for Game 5 and have continued to play a deep rotation throughout this series. In Game 4, OKC has played a 10-man rotation and even though Josh Giddey has continued to start, he played just 12 minutes in Game 4. It's a bit laughable, though, because Giddey had a team-high +/- of +6 in Game 4 but is -22 on the series in 53 minutes. He's brutal for the team's spacing and is a negative in this series. He has been borderline unplayable but head coach Mark Daigneault seems committed to playing an extended rotation.

This series has been extremely close but with Doncic's injury, Gilgeous-Alexnader has been the clear best player in the series, averaging 31.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.8 blocks. He has been incredibly consistent regardless of the defensive schemes Dallas has thrown at him.

Dallas was not exactly doubling Gilgeous-Alexander on the perimeter, rather always seemingly sending a second help defender on the drives, generally one of its bigs. The Mavs have also been able to limit Jalen Williams by switching on everything and denying him shots from his preferred spots. Dallas has been able to muck up the Thunder's offensive product and made them work for everything.

A key moving forward for OKC will be whether the rest of the team can capitalize on Gilgeous-Alexander's passes when the defense collapses on him on drives. His assists prop is set at 6.5 and even though he missed that the last two games, Gilgeous-Alexander has seen consistent potential in those games of 14 and 15. I'd consider over 6.5 assists.

Mavericks vs. Thunder

Betting Pick & Prediction

Despite having some incredible offensive talents between these two squads, this is a series that has been dictated by defense and the adjustments these teams have made to limit the opposition's best player.

Doncic has struggled when defended by Lu Dort and couple that with the injury and he has submitted an inefficient series thus far. As for the Thunder, the Mavericks are making things difficult for Gilgeous-Alexander, but he can still generate offense. Either way, the offenses are taking time to go through their progressions.

The total has dropped each game of the series and now sits at 213.5, which this series has only gone over once. I'll grab the under in what should still be a defensive-minded affair.

Mavericks vs Thunder Picks: Game 5

Under 213.5
Kyrie Irving over 5.5 Assists
Kyrie Irving Series Assists Leader (+700, DraftKings)